Keywords
Theme:
Bidding probability, forecast, bid amount, rejection, blocks, Earth Science Associates, GOMsmart, GOM3, GOM-Cubed
Place:
Gulf of Mexico, GOM, USA
Stratum:
Offshore
Temporal:
Current
Description
Abstract
The Bid Forecast dataset contains open, deepwater blocks available for bidding in the upcoming lease sale. It contains the forecast of the likelihood of the block receiving a bid, what the bid amount is likely to be, the likelihood the government will accept a minimum bid and the amount likely required to not have a bid rejected.
Purpose
Analysis for oil and gas exploration and production in the Gulf of Mexico.
_________________
Status of the data
Complete
Data update frequency: Weekly
Data update frequency: Weekly
Description:
publication date
Publication Information
Who created the data:
US Department of Interior, Earth Science Associates
Series name:
BOEM Website/BOEM Atlas Series/Public Sources
_________________
Data storage and access information
File name:
forecast.gdb
Type of data: vector digital data
http://www.boem.gov
Data processing environment:
Microsoft Windows XP Version 5.1 (Build 2600) Service Pack 3; ESRI ArcGIS Pro 3.4
Type of data: vector digital data
Location of the data:
Constraints on accessing and using the data
Access constraints:
Licensed GOM
3
/GOMsmart Users
Use constraints:
License Terms under GOM
3
/GOMsmart license agreement
Details about this document
Who completed this document
DBA
Earth Science Associates
mailing and physical address:
(562) 428-3181 (voice)
contactesa@earthsci.com
Earth Science Associates
mailing and physical address:
4300 Long Beach Blvd., Ste. 310
Long Beach, CA 90807
USA
(562) 428-3181 (voice)
contactesa@earthsci.com
Hours of service:
9-6- Pacific Time (Monday-Friday)
Standards used to create this document
Standard name:
FGDC Content Standards for Digital Geospatial Metadata
Standard version: FGDC-STD-001-1998
Time convention used in this document: local time
Metadata profiles defining additonal information
ESRI Metadata Profile:
http://www.esri.com/metadata/esriprof80.html
Standard version: FGDC-STD-001-1998
Time convention used in this document: local time
Metadata profiles defining additonal information
Horizontal coordinate system
Geographic coordinate system name:
GCS_North_American_1927
Details
Geographic Coordinate System
Latitude Resolution:
0.000000
Longitude Resolution:
0.000000
Geographic Coordinate Units:
Decimal degrees
Geodetic Model
Horizontal Datum Name:
North American Datum of 1927
Ellipsoid Name:
Clarke 1866
Semi-major Axis:
6378206.400000
Denominator of Flattening Ratio:
294.978698
Depth System Definition
Datum Name:
Mean sea level
Distance Units:
feet
Encoding Method:
Attribute values
_________________
Bounding coordinates
Horizontal
In decimal degrees
West:
-97.0039210249999
East:
-85.1025491059999
North:
30.1987077100001
South:
25.6845262420001
In projected or local coordinates
Left:
-97.0039210249999
Right:
-85.1025491059999
Top:
25.6845262420001
Bottom:
30.1987077100001
_________________
Lineage
FGDC lineage
Process step 1
Process description:
Bid likelihood was calculated using a logistic regression. Bid amounts were forecast from a linear regression. Minimum bid requirements were forecast using a random forest model of decision trees.
Who did this process
DBA
Earth Science Associates
mailing and physical address:
(562) 428-3181 (voice)
contactesa@earthsci.com
Earth Science Associates
mailing and physical address:
4300 Long Beach Blvd., Ste. 310
Long Beach, CA 90807
USA
(562) 428-3181 (voice)
contactesa@earthsci.com
Hours of service:
9-6 Pacific Time (Monday-Friday)
_________________
Spatial data quality
Horizontal positional accuracy
BOEM data checked for obvious errors in entry. ESA calculated values checked for quality.
Vertical positional accuracy
BOEM data checked for obvious errors in entry. ESA calculated values checked for quality.
_________________
Spatial data description
Vector data information
ESRI description
Lease
ESRI feature type:
Simple
Geometry type: Polygon
Topology: FALSE
Spatial Index: TRUE
Linear referencing: FALSE
Geometry type: Polygon
Topology: FALSE
Spatial Index: TRUE
Linear referencing: FALSE
SDTS description
ESA_block_forecast
Feature class: SDTS feature type, feature count
Details for Bid Forecast
Type of object:
Feature Class
Description
The Bid Forecast contains blocks within two blocks of existing leases, forecasting the likelihood of the block receiving a bid, what the bid amount is likely to be, the likelihood the government will accept a minimum bid and the amount likely required to not have a bid rejected.
Attributes
FID
Alias:
OBJECTID
Data type: OID
Width: 4
Precision: 0
Scale: 0
Definition: Internal feature number. Definition Source: ESRI
Data type: OID
Width: 4
Precision: 0
Scale: 0
Definition: Internal feature number. Definition Source: ESRI
Shape
Alias:
Shape
Data type: Geometry
Width: 0
Precision: 0
Scale: 0
Definition: Feature geometry. Definition Source: ESRI
Data type: Geometry
Width: 0
Precision: 0
Scale: 0
Definition: Feature geometry. Definition Source: ESRI
AREABLK
Alias:
Protraction Area + Block Number
Data type: String
Width: 7
Definition: ESA-derived: Protraction Area + Block Number Definition Source: ESA
Data type: String
Width: 7
Definition: ESA-derived: Protraction Area + Block Number Definition Source: ESA
SALEDATE
Alias:
Sale Date
Data type: Double
Width: 8
Definition: Sale Date -The date of the Outer Continental Shelf lease sale. Definition Source: https://www.data.boem.gov/Main/HtmlPage.aspx?page=leaseData
Data type: Double
Width: 8
Definition: Sale Date -The date of the Outer Continental Shelf lease sale. Definition Source: https://www.data.boem.gov/Main/HtmlPage.aspx?page=leaseData
SHELL
Alias:
Shell Likelihood
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The likelihood of Shell bidding on the block. Definition Source: ESA
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The likelihood of Shell bidding on the block. Definition Source: ESA
EQUINOR
Alias:
Equinor likelihood
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The likelihood of Equinor bidding on the block. Definition Source: ESA
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The likelihood of Equinor bidding on the block. Definition Source: ESA
CHEVRON
Alias:
Chevron likelihood
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The likelihood of Chevron bidding on the block. Definition Source: ESA
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The likelihood of Chevron bidding on the block. Definition Source: ESA
BP
Alias:
BP likelihood
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The likelihood of BP bidding on the block. Definition Source: ESA
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The likelihood of BP bidding on the block. Definition Source: ESA
HESS
Alias:
Hess likelihood
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The likelihood of Hess bidding on the block. Definition Source: ESA
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The likelihood of Hess bidding on the block. Definition Source: ESA
LLOG
Alias:
LLOG likelihood
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The likelihood of LLOG bidding on the block. Definition Source: ESA
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The likelihood of LLOG bidding on the block. Definition Source: ESA
ECOPETROL
Alias:
Ecopetrol likelihood
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The likelihood of Ecopetrol bidding on the block. Definition Source: ESA
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The likelihood of Ecopetrol bidding on the block. Definition Source: ESA
MURPHY
Alias:
Murphy likelihood
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The likelihood of Murphy bidding on the block. Definition Source: ESA
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The likelihood of Murphy bidding on the block. Definition Source: ESA
REDWILLOW
Alias:
Red Willow likelihood
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The likelihood of Red Willow bidding on the block. Definition Source: ESA
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The likelihood of Red Willow bidding on the block. Definition Source: ESA
REPSOL
Alias:
Repsol likelihood
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The likelihood of Repsol bidding on the block. Definition Source: ESA
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The likelihood of Repsol bidding on the block. Definition Source: ESA
RIDGEWOOD
Alias:
Ridgewood likelihood
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The likelihood of Ridgewood bidding on the block. Definition Source: ESA
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The likelihood of Ridgewood bidding on the block. Definition Source: ESA
TOTAL
Alias:
Total likelihood
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The likelihood of Total bidding on the block. Definition Source: ESA
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The likelihood of Total bidding on the block. Definition Source: ESA
HOUSTONENERGY
Alias:
Houston Energy likelihood
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The likelihood of Houston Energy bidding on the block. Definition Source: ESA
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The likelihood of Houston Energy bidding on the block. Definition Source: ESA
WOODSIDE
Alias:
Woodside likelihood
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The likelihood of Woodside bidding on the block. Definition Source: ESA
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The likelihood of Woodside bidding on the block. Definition Source: ESA
OXY
Alias:
OXY likelihood
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The likelihood of OXY bidding on the block. Definition Source: ESA
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The likelihood of OXY bidding on the block. Definition Source: ESA
TALOS
Alias:
TALOS likelihood
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The likelihood of TALOS bidding on the block. Definition Source: ESA
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The likelihood of TALOS bidding on the block. Definition Source: ESA
BEACON
Alias:
Beacon likelihood
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The likelihood of Beacon bidding on the block. Definition Source: ESA
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The likelihood of Beacon bidding on the block. Definition Source: ESA
Other
Alias:
Other likelihood
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The likelihood of another company bidding on the block. This is the collective group of all companies without enough deepwater bidding to forecast individually. Definition Source: ESA
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The likelihood of another company bidding on the block. This is the collective group of all companies without enough deepwater bidding to forecast individually. Definition Source: ESA
probBid
Alias:
Probability of Receiving a Bid
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The probability of the block receiving a bid in the next sale. Definition Source: ESA
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The probability of the block receiving a bid in the next sale. Definition Source: ESA
cumProd
Alias:
Cumulative probability of all forecasted blocks
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The cumulative probability of all blocks in the forecasted set, used to categorize the type. Definition Source: ESA
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The cumulative probability of all blocks in the forecasted set, used to categorize the type. Definition Source: ESA
Type
Alias:
The Bid Likelihood Category
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The category of block most likely to receive a bid in the next sale (from A - E). Definition Source: ESA
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The category of block most likely to receive a bid in the next sale (from A - E). Definition Source: ESA
probRank
Alias:
Ranking of Probability of Receiving a Bid
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The ranking of the probability of the block receiving a bid in the next sale. Definition Source: ESA
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The ranking of the probability of the block receiving a bid in the next sale. Definition Source: ESA
amountRank
Alias:
Ranking of forecasted bid amounts
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The ranking of the forecasted bid amount compared to all other available blocks. Definition Source: ESA
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The ranking of the forecasted bid amount compared to all other available blocks. Definition Source: ESA
topComp
Alias:
Top Company forecast to bid on the block
Data type: String
Width: 69
Definition: The company with the highest likelihood to bid on the block. Definition Source: ESA
Data type: String
Width: 69
Definition: The company with the highest likelihood to bid on the block. Definition Source: ESA
MROVRank
Alias:
Ranking of forecasted amounts the government will accept
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: Ranking of forecasted amounts the government will accept (not reject). Definition Source: ESA
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: Ranking of forecasted amounts the government will accept (not reject). Definition Source: ESA
bidAmountEst
Alias:
Forecasted Bid Amount
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: Amount forecasted to be bid on the block. Definition Source: ESA
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: Amount forecasted to be bid on the block. Definition Source: ESA
probMinMROV
Alias:
Probability that a minimum bid will be acceptable
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The probability that the government will accept a minimum bid. Definition Source: ESA
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The probability that the government will accept a minimum bid. Definition Source: ESA
MROVamountEst
Alias:
Amount forecast to be required to not be rejected
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The necessary amount forecasted to be required to not be rejected by the government. Definition Source: ESA
Data type: Number
Width: 9
Definition: The necessary amount forecasted to be required to not be rejected by the government. Definition Source: ESA